Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/J017345/1
[WATER] Improved Seasonal Prediction of the Onset of the West African Monsoon
Training Grant Award
- Lead Supervisor:
- Professor P Knippertz, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment
- Grant held at:
- University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Terrestrial
- Overall Classification:
- Atmospheric
- ENRIs:
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Global Change
- Natural Resource Management
- Science Topics:
- None
- Abstract:
- This project aims to provide the underpinning science needed to improve forecasts of the West African monsoon onset. In West Africa the timing of the monsoon onset, i.e. the abrupt northward shift of the main precipitation belt into the Sahel, in early summer is a key element of the regional water cycle and the most important factor for agricultural and hydrological planning, affecting large parts of the population in this highly vulnerable region. Currently decision making by West African government authorities relies on a consensus seasonal forecast produced by the West African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF), which is based on statistical methods using past observations and dynamical computer models. The UK Met Office participate in the RCOF and provide output from their seasonal modelling system. An important problem is the low skill of the model forecasts that hamper a successful prediction of the onset and an effective adaptation of agricultural practices. The Open CASE studentship between the University of Leeds and the Met Office proposed here seeks (a) to quantify the current levels of skill of seasonal predictions of monsoon onset, rainfall and variability and (b) to analyse the physical processes involved in the monsoon onset in detail, in order to recommend specific model improvements to capture the observed variability. A key advance from current practice is the emphasis on investigating physical mechanisms and their implications for modelling rather than a mainly statistical evaluation of the forecasts. In the long run, results from this studentship are expected to help providing better seasonal predictions of rainfall to West African countries to improve agricultural and hydrological planning and thereby to support food and water security. The work to be conducted by the PhD student consists of four major parts: (a) literature research, (b) analysis of observational data, (c) analysis of existing seasonal predictions and (d) model sensitivity experiments. Emphasis will be put on testing the influence of importance drivers of the monsoon such as sea-surface temperatures, the state of the land surface and its interactions with precipitation for example through evapotranspiration, influences from midlatitude weather systems and the strength and position of the Saharan heat low. At the same time more technical aspects such as the horizontal resolution of the model and the treatment of precipitation and vegetation processes will be investigated, too. The student will strongly benefit from the longstanding expertise of the Leeds supervisors in researching West African weather and climate, most notably through the NERC-funded African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis, AMMA, 2005-2009, and from the modelling and forecasting expertise of the Met Office including training in an operational forecasting environment. This project will be part of the international AMMA-2 programme (2010-2020), which focuses on the fast convective processes in the water cycle and whose primary aims are to convert the physical science advances of AMMA-1 (2002- 2010) into tools for decision-makers. It will also contribute to the DfID-Met Office Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP) and the Africa Process Evaluation Group (PEG) at the Met Office. This combination will ensure maximum impact on science, operational forecasting and the application of scientific results for the benefit of the people of West Africa.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/J017345/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- DTG - directed
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Open CASE
This training grant award has a total value of £67,596
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Total - Fees | Total - RTSG | Total - Student Stipend |
|---|---|---|
| £13,812 | £5,500 | £48,285 |
If you need further help, please read the user guide.