Details of Award
NERC Reference : NER/T/S/2002/00154
Quantifying the economic value of coupled ocean-atmosphere model ensemble forecasts for decision making within the UK energy industry.
Grant Award
- Principal Investigator:
- Professor DB Stephenson, University of Reading, Meteorology
- Co-Investigator:
- Professor A O'Neill, University of Reading, NERC National Ctr for Earth Observation
- Co-Investigator:
- Professor RT Sutton, University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science
- Grant held at:
- University of Reading, Meteorology
- Science Area:
- Marine
- Atmospheric
- Overall Classification:
- Atmospheric
- ENRIs:
- Global Change
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Science Topics:
- Ocean - Atmosphere Interact.
- Technol. for Environ. Appl.
- Climate & Climate Change
- Abstract:
- This pilot project will develop a proper Bayesian framework for exploiting the probabilistic weather information provided by coupled model forecasts. The generic methodology will be clearly illustrated by applying it to the problem of electricity demand forecasting in collaboration with the National Grid Company plc. Both historical weather data and multi-model ensembles of coupled model hindcasts provided by the EU DEMETER project will be combined using Bayesian methods to provide optimal hindcasts of the probability distribution of seasonal electricity demand. The added value will be carefully assessed using Bayesian decision theory value-at-risk models. This ?proof of concept? approach will enable us to quantitatively assess the real added value of coupled model seasonal forecasts and COAPEC science.
- NERC Reference:
- NER/T/S/2002/00154
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- Directed Pre FEC
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- COAPEC
This grant award has a total value of £107,162
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Total - Staff | Total - T&S | Total - Other Costs | Total - Equipment | Total - Indirect Costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| £63,695 | £3,238 | £4,935 | £5,994 | £29,299 |
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