Details of Award
NERC Reference : NER/T/S/2001/00968
A synthetic analog approach to seasonal forecasting.
Grant Award
- Principal Investigator:
- Professor MR Allen, University of Oxford, Oxford Physics
- Grant held at:
- University of Oxford, Oxford Physics
- Science Area:
- Marine
- Atmospheric
- Overall Classification:
- Atmospheric
- ENRIs:
- Global Change
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Science Topics:
- Large Scale Dynamics/Transport
- Ocean - Atmosphere Interact.
- Regional & Extreme Weather
- Climate & Climate Change
- Abstract:
- We aim to develop a method for seasonal climate forecasting whereby an organization can produce their own seasonal forecasts, tailored to their own needs and sensitivities. The method, which we call the synthetic analog method, involves distributing ensembles of a fully coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Model (AOGCM) on the organizations personal computer (PC) network (utilising idle CPU cycles) to build up a database of model-generated analog states of the climate system. This database is then interrogated to find the model analog states which match closely the current observed state of the real system, and the corresponding model trajectories are used to form the ensemble forecast. The analog states can be selected using an algorithm whereby the ensemble forecast samples the probability density function of the users most sensitive variable in an optimal way. Hence the forecast can be tailored to the users requirements in a way in which centrally produced forecasts cannot. The method is more effective than the more usual approach of searching the observed record for analog states as the AOGCM may be run for many 1000s of years to better sample the climate attractor. Also the need for a data assimilation system is obviated, the term 'organization' in the above could mean some medium-large sized business, a developing world country who currently do not have access to numerical forecasting products, or even co-operative of small businesses or individuals who share information over the internet.
- NERC Reference:
- NER/T/S/2001/00968
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- Directed Pre FEC
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- COAPEC
This grant award has a total value of £176,621
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Total - T&S | Total - Staff | Total - Other Costs | Total - Indirect Costs | Total - Equipment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| £6,267 | £99,675 | £21,829 | £45,850 | £3,000 |
If you need further help, please read the user guide.