Details of Award

NERC Reference : NE/Z504245/1

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From Toy to Cloud Modelling: Leveraging Molecular Simulations to Improve Atmospheric Models of Ice Nucleation

Grant Award

Principal Investigator:: Professor GC Sosso, University of Warwick, Chemistry
Co-Investigator:: Professor K Carslaw, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment
Co-Investigator:: Dr TF Whale, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment
Grant held at:: University of Warwick, Chemistry

Science Area:: None
Overall Classification:: Unknown

ENRIs:: None
Science Topics:: None

Abstract:: This project aims to enhance weather and climate predictions by addressing a critical gap in our understanding of cloud formation, specifically the process of ice nucleation. Ice Nucleating Particles (INPs) significantly influence cloud properties and, consequently, weather and climate systems. However, the current parameterizations controlling primary ice formation in cloud models are simplistic and detached from the molecular physics of ice nucleation, leading to less reliable predictions. This project proposes a novel, multidisciplinary approach to physically underpin ice nucleation parameterizations used in weather and climate-relevant cloud models. Currently, these models rely on simple linear fits or empirical fits based on laboratory data, which do not accurately reflect the complex nature of ice formation in clouds. This has profound implications for the structure, composition, and functioning of clouds in our atmosphere, affecting everything from weather patterns to global climate regulation. To address this, we will develop a simple 'toy model' correlated with atomistic molecular dynamics simulations and corroborated by observational data of INP concentrations in the atmosphere. Such a model will bridge the gap between large-scale atmospheric models and the molecular-level details of ice formation. By leveraging molecular simulations of supercooled water at the interface with prototypical ice nucleating materials such as polyvinyl alcohol (PVA), we will derive insights into the probability of finding an ice nucleating site of a given size on specific surfaces. This data will then be used to predict the freezing rate corresponding to ice formation in clouds, which is a pivotal factor in cloud development and behaviour. The ultimate goal is to implement a validated model, grounded in both physical theory and empirical observation, into existing cloud models. This will significantly enhance their predictive capabilities by providing a more accurate description of ice nucleation processes. By doing so, the project aims to remedy the current deficits in cloud modeling, thereby improving our ability to predict weather and climate outcomes. The expected benefits of this research are far-reaching. Improved cloud models will lead to better weather forecasting, aiding in disaster preparedness and resource management. In terms of climate science, a deeper understanding of cloud physics is crucial for accurate simulations of future climate scenarios, which are essential for policy-making and environmental management. Furthermore, this project will contribute to the broader scientific community by providing a framework for connecting molecular-level phenomena with large-scale atmospheric processes. In conclusion, this project stands to significantly advance our understanding and modeling of cloud formation, particularly the role of ice nucleation, by integrating molecular physics with atmospheric science. The outcome will be more reliable weather and climate predictions, benefiting not just the scientific community but society at large by informing policy and enhancing our ability to respond to environmental changes. This research represents a critical step forward in our quest to understand and predict the complex interplay between atmospheric processes and climate change.

Period of Award:: 1 Mar 2025 - 29 Feb 2028
Value:: £786,026

(FY details)

Authorised funds only

NERC Reference:: NE/Z504245/1
Grant Stage:: Awaiting Start Confirmation
Scheme:: Research Grants
Grant Status:: Accepted
Programme:: Pushing the Frontiers

This grant award has a total value of £786,026

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FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)

DI - Other Costs	Indirect - Indirect Costs	DA - Investigators	DI - Staff	DA - Estate Costs	DA - Other Directly Allocated	DI - T&S
£16,807	£313,043	£68,231	£211,679	£89,421	£45,786	£41,059

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