Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/X017575/1
HYdroclimate Reconstruction in Arid eXtremes (HYRAX): understanding the mechanisms of global desertification
Fellowship Award
- Fellow:
- Dr M Markowska, Northumbria University, Fac of Engineering and Environment
- Grant held at:
- Northumbria University, Fac of Engineering and Environment
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Earth
- Terrestrial
- Overall Classification:
- Unknown
- ENRIs:
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Global Change
- Natural Resource Management
- Science Topics:
- Climate & Climate Change
- Palaeoclimate simulation
- Isotopic record
- Hydrogeology
- Speleothems
- Palaeoenvironments
- Cenozoic climate change
- Palaeo proxies
- Quaternary Science
- Pollen analysis
- Vegetation modelling
- Land - Atmosphere Interactions
- Abstract:
- Earth is experiencing clear warming toward climate states humans have not seen since the stone age. Adaptation to these changes will be challenging. Drylands (water-limited regions) cover almost half of Earth's land surfaces, supporting almost 40% of the world's population. The International Panel on Climate Change predicts further dryland aridification by the end of this century, plunging populations already experiencing water shortages into crisis. However, global climate models disagree in both the direction and scale of future hydroclimate change and only suggest medium confidence for predicted outcomes. Further, previously warm and high-CO2 periods in Earth's geological history, such as the late Pliocene (~3 Ma), almost uniformly suggest more humidity in dryland regions during globally warmer conditions. This "Dryland Hydroclimate Paradox" must be urgently addressed to improve our forecast on the climate impacts of future climate change in global dryland regions. The geological past may be the best, indeed only, tool to understand how Earth's processes operate under previously warmer and colder climate states, allowing us to identify the key drivers controlling aridity in global subtropical zones. The proposed research will exploit the emerging potential of dryland cave deposits (e.g. stalagmites) to be used as 'ancient-rain gauges', switching on when there is enough rainfall and recording the exact timing of past wet periods. Dating stalagmites allows us to identify exactly when subtropical zones were more humid in the past and under what conditions this occurred (globally warmer or cooler climate states). Project HYRAX will deliver an unprecedented dataset of changes in positive hydro-balance in subtropical drylands over the last ~6 million years by using a unique combination of radiometric dating and statistical evaluation techniques. As speleothems form they also trap other useful information that can be used as a proxy for the environmental conditions at the time of formation. Using a combination of these clues trapped and preserved in speleothems for millions of years such as: fossil pollen, fossil water and fossil micro-organisms, the environment at the time the stalagmite grew will be reconstructed. This will deliver unique quantitative information about the local vegetation, rainfall composition and amount and surface temperature during past wet periods. Combining unique records, cutting edge techniques, state of the art analytical approaches and proxy system modelling techniques, this project will translate this information into real world climate data, allowing us to test how skilful models are in predicting these ancient environments. This will be a significant leap forward in our understanding of how drylands respond to changes in global temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. My central aim is to provide much needed benchmarks for terrestrial hydroclimate simulations and data-model comparison to better understand the physics underlying change in dryland climate in the future. Without this, it will remain challenging for stakeholders to develop mitigation targets and government policies.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/X017575/1
- Grant Stage:
- Awaiting Offer Decision
- Scheme:
- Research Fellowship
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- IRF
This fellowship award has a total value of £675,763
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| DI - Other Costs | Indirect - Indirect Costs | DA - Estate Costs | DI - Staff | DI - T&S | DA - Other Directly Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £91,590 | £212,406 | £17,203 | £265,306 | £62,190 | £27,070 |
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