Skip to content
Natural Environment Research Council
Grants on the Web - Return to homepage Logo

Details of Award

NERC Reference : NE/V018442/1

MesoS2D: Mesospheric sub-seasonal to decadal predictability

Grant Award

Principal Investigator:
Professor DR Marsh, University of Leeds, Physics and Astronomy
Science Area:
Atmospheric
Overall Classification:
Unknown
ENRIs:
Environmental Risks and Hazards
Global Change
Science Topics:
Atmospheric ionisation
Global atmospheric models
Mesospheric chemistry
Radiative forcing
Atmospheric Kinetics
Adaptive mesh modelling
Atmospheric circulation
Circulation modelling
Gravity waves
Large scale atmos modelling
Mesosphere
Solar wind
Teleconnections
Wave dynamics
Large Scale Dynamics/Transport
Infrared imaging
Mesospheric processes
Remote sensing
Radiative Processes & Effects
Atmospheric chemistry
Atmospheric particles
Energetic particles
Geomagnetism
Gravity waves
High latitude physics
Ionosphere
Mesosphere
Meteor winds
Microwave limb sounding
Radar networks
Solar activity
Solar cycle
Stratosphere-mesosphere coupling
Themosphere
Vertical coupling
Upper Atmos Process & Geospace
Abstract:
In order to accurately predict impacts of space weather and climate variability on the whole atmosphere we need an accurate representation of the whole atmosphere. The mesosphere (~50-95 km altitude) is the most poorly understood region of the atmosphere, it is the critical boundary between two domains (the climate domain and the space weather domain) and this presents a problem when trying to model and prediction conditions in the whole atmosphere. Currently the level of prediction in the mesosphere is no better than climatology. Historically there have been few observations of this region to help us characterise it. However, in the past decade or so the number of observations has increased markedly, including multiple middle atmosphere observing satellite missions. We plan to take advantage of this golden age of middle atmosphere observations and together with one of the world most sophisticated whole atmosphere models to quantify the variability and drivers of the mesosphere. The mesosphere influences, and is influenced by, in-situ and external effects such as atmospheric waves and tides (upward) and space weather effects (downward). The mesosphere is strongly coupled to the lower edge of the ionosphere, as well as the other atmospheric regions, so changes in one part can impact on others. In order to make progress in modelling the whole atmosphere as a coupled system we need to have a sound scientific understanding of the drivers of variability. For climate models we have a good level of predictability for ~2 weeks and one the ~decades scale. However, critically we cannot do this in the mesosphere yet. We aim to focus our efforts on understanding variability on the subseasonal to decadal variations in the mesosphere as a pathway to improving model predictions. We will use the highly instrumented region of Scandinavia, in conjunction with satellite data, to determine the variability of the mesosphere/lower ionosphere and its drivers over a sub seasonal to decadal scale. We will be among the first to use a new, ~#50 million, high-resolution instrument (EISCAT 3D). This will be the world's most sophisticated ionospheric radar which will allow unprecedented small scale measurements of variations in the middle atmosphere. In conjunction with special high-resolution whole atmosphere model simulations, we will determine the drivers and variability of this atmospheric region and provide a first step along the road of improving predictability of the mesosphere at sub-seasonal to decadal timescales.
Period of Award:
3 Apr 2022 - 2 Apr 2025
Value:
£478,198 Split Award
Authorised funds only
NERC Reference:
NE/V018442/1
Grant Stage:
Awaiting Event/Action
Scheme:
Large Grant
Grant Status:
Active
Programme:
Large Grant

This grant award has a total value of £478,198  

top of page


FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)

DI - Other CostsIndirect - Indirect CostsDA - InvestigatorsDI - StaffDA - Estate CostsDA - Other Directly AllocatedDI - T&S
£83,742£167,186£57,823£125,006£33,763£4,824£5,854

If you need further help, please read the user guide.