Details of Award

NERC Reference : NE/S006745/1

NSFPLR-NERC: Processes, drivers, predictions: Modeling the response of Thwaites Glacier over the next century using ice/ocean coupled models

Principal Investigator:: Professor H Gudmundsson, Northumbria University, Fac of Engineering and Environment
Grant held at:: Northumbria University, Fac of Engineering and Environment

ENRIs:: Global Change
Science Topics:: Glacial processes; Climate & Climate Change; Antarctic ice; Ice shelf dynamics; Ice shelves; Ice streams; Ocean circulation; Sea level change; Glacial & Cryospheric Systems

Abstract:: We propose to conduct coupled ice-ocean numerical simulations of Thwaites Glacier (TG) to predict its future contribution to global sea level change, and to provide both statistical and structural error estimates using three state-of-the-art ice flow numerical ice-flow models (ISSM, Ua and STREAMICE) coupled with the ocean model MITgcm. We will implement and improve the representation of several key physical processes (calving, ice damage, mechanical basal conditions) that have either not been included, or poorly represented in previous ice-flow modelling work. We will quantify the relative role of different proposed external drivers of change (e.g., ocean-induced ice-shelf thinning, loss of ice-shelf pinning points), and explore systematically the stability regime of TG with the aim of identifying internal thresholds separating stable and unstable grounding line retreats. Using inverse methodology, we will produce new physically consistent high-resolution (300 m) data sets on ice-thicknesses from available radar measurements. Furthermore, we will generate several new remote sensing data sets on ice velocities and rates of elevation change. These will be used to constrain and validate our numerical models, and will also be highly valuable as stand-alone data sets.

Authorised funds only

This grant award has a total value of £703,194

DI - Other Costs	Indirect - Indirect Costs	DA - Investigators	DI - Staff	DI - Equipment	DA - Estate Costs	DI - T&S
£20,491	£266,168	£23,090	£325,212	£10,408	£45,191	£12,634

If you need further help, please read the user guide.