Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/S006605/1
DOMINOS (Disintegration of Marine Ice Sheets: Novel Optimized Simulations)
Grant Award
- Principal Investigator:
- Professor D Benn, University of St Andrews, Geography and Sustainable Development
- Co-Investigator:
- Dr TR Cowton, University of St Andrews, Geography and Sustainable Development
- Grant held at:
- University of St Andrews, Geography and Sustainable Development
- Science Area:
- Earth
- Marine
- Overall Classification:
- Unknown
- ENRIs:
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Global Change
- Science Topics:
- Glacial & Cryospheric Systems
- Abstract:
- There is growing consensus that Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, is unstable and vulnerable to collapse. However, there is significant disagreement in projections of rates of mass loss, with some studies suggesting century to millennial scale retreat and others forecasting more catastrophic disintegration. These disagreements are significant because rapid disintegration of Thwaites and adjacent glaciers could potentially trigger or accelerate collapse of significant portions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet with implications for global mean sea level rise (SLR) in the coming decades. Predicting rates of ice loss from Thwaites Glacier is currently hampered by a lack of reliable models of ice fracture and breakaway (iceberg calving) and the interactions between calving and climate change. Our study addresses this major knowledge gap, and is motivated by the need to improve sea level projections critical for policy and planning. Projected rates of sea level rise from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (and Thwaites Glacier in particular) have large uncertainties due to difficulties in understanding and projecting the calving and dynamic processes that control the ice sheet stability. This uncertainty is magnified by the poorly understood connection between calving processes, ice sheet stability and climate. To address these uncertainties, our proposal seeks to explicitly resolve the processes that could cause retreat and collapse of Thwaites Glacier using a novel ice-dynamics model suite. This model suite includes a discrete element model capable of simulating coupled fracture and ice-flow processes, a 3D full Stokes continuum model, and the continental scale ice-dynamics model BISICLES. Ice dynamics models will be coupled to an ocean forcing model suite including simple plume models, intermediate complexity 2-layer ocean models and fully 3D regional ocean models. This hierarchical approach will use high-fidelity process models to inform and constrain the sequence of lower-order models needed to extrapolate improved understanding to larger scales and has the potential to radically reduce uncertainty of rates of marine ice sheet collapse and associated sea level rise. The large-scale modeling approach will be tested and implemented within the open source BISICLES ice dynamics model.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/S006605/1
- Grant Stage:
- Awaiting Event/Action
- Scheme:
- Directed (RP) - NR1
- Grant Status:
- Active
- Programme:
- Thwaites Glacier
This grant award has a total value of £550,511
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| DI - Other Costs | Exception - Other Costs | Indirect - Indirect Costs | DA - Investigators | DI - Staff | Exception - Staff | DA - Estate Costs | DI - T&S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £20,895 | £12,988 | £194,786 | £29,211 | £195,782 | £45,053 | £33,975 | £17,821 |
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