Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/R008817/1
Predicting invasion probabilities of introduced non-native freshwater fishes according to climate change and management interventions
Training Grant Award
- Lead Supervisor:
- Prof. R Britton, Bournemouth University, Faculty of Science and Technology
- Grant held at:
- Bournemouth University, Faculty of Science and Technology
- Science Area:
- Freshwater
- Overall Classification:
- Freshwater
- ENRIs:
- Biodiversity
- Global Change
- Natural Resource Management
- Science Topics:
- Biodiversity conservation
- Conservation Ecology
- Freshwater populations
- Invasive species
- Population Ecology
- Biodiversity
- Abstract:
- Anthropogenic induced climate change is resulting in warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Whilst the scale of future temperature increases depends upon emissions, warming of up to 2oC is already considered inevitable. A further aspect of global change is introduced, non native species (INNS). Whilst only a small proportion of INNS develop biological invasions (i.e. they spread and cause impacts), their detrimental consequences for biodiversity can be irreversible. In temperate regions, such as Great Britain, climate change is predicted to increase the likelihood of many INNS developing invasions as the temperature constraints on their reproduction reduce. The regulation of INNS is enhanced when predictions highlight the high-risk INNS that require management interventions to prevent invasions from developing. Predicting the future distributions of INNS can be gained from species distribution models. These predict the environmental suitability of the INNS from abiotic variables (e.g. climate variables including mean temperature per month and precipitation levels). The ecological consequences of INNS can be predicted by empirical and modelling methods. These predictive approaches cannot, however, integrate how altered environmental conditions, such as warming, affect the relationships between the INNS and native species or predict how management interventions can reduce invasion probabilities. By contrast, Agent Based Models (ABMs) explicitly consider how the components of biological systems (i.e. the agents) behave and interact under specified conditions, and thus attempt to understand how the system changes as a result of these interactions. These models are increasingly powerful tools that have been applied to a wide variety of ecological and environmental questions, used to explore environmental issues that have ecological, spatial and regulatory contexts. They have not, however, been applied to understanding how the interactions of climate change and management actions can affect the development of biological invasions from INNS. They thus provide a powerful tool for predicting the invasion outcomes of INNS. Therefore, through using river basins in England as model areas, freshwater fishes as model INNS and the Environment Agency as Case Partner, the PhD aims to develop novel ABMs to predict current and future INNS invasion probabilities according to climate change projections and management interventions. The ABMs will have the power to predict future INNS distributions and impacts within and between English river basins, and over a range of climate and management scenarios. The research will initially select the non-native fishes to be modelled through a process known as horizon scanning. Data on the ecology and biology of these model non-native fishes will then be developed, followed by the development of a basic non-native fish ABM. By combining the ecological and biological data for each model fish with the basic ABM, species specific models will be developed with the power to predict how differences in climate change projections and management interventions affect the dispersal rates and impacts of the non-native fishes on native species. This will enable the models to be used by the case partner to develop predictions of how their non-native fish policies and regulations can be refined to improve their ability to deliver resistance and resilience to native ecosystems against climate change. The inclusion of the case partner at every stage of the project development has delivered this proposal that should deliver a strong training programme, excellent research and very high potential for research impact. The case partner and research organisation have an established collaborative relationship that has already delivered two recent completed studentships and a series of published articles. Thus, the partnership is strongly placed to deliver this studentship.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/R008817/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- Doctoral Training
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- NPIF Allocation
This training grant award has a total value of £88,293
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Total - Fees | Total - Student Stipend | Total - RTSG |
|---|---|---|
| £17,295 | £59,998 | £11,000 |
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