Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/P016626/1
PROSPECTIVE AFTERSHOCK FORECASTING OF THE NORCIA 2016 EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE, CENTRAL APENNINES, ITALY
Grant Award
- Principal Investigator:
- Dr M Segou, British Geological Survey, Earth Hazards & Observatories
- Co-Investigator:
- Professor IG Main, University of Edinburgh, Sch of Geosciences
- Co-Investigator:
- Professor J McCloskey, University of Edinburgh, Sch of Geosciences
- Co-Investigator:
- Dr B Baptie, British Geological Survey, Earth Hazards & Observatories
- Co-Investigator:
- Dr M Naylor, University of Edinburgh, Sch of Geosciences
- Grant held at:
- British Geological Survey, Earth Hazards & Observatories
- Science Area:
- Earth
- Overall Classification:
- Unknown
- ENRIs:
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Science Topics:
- Geohazards
- Earthquakes
- Risk management
- Uncertainty communication
- Tectonic Processes
- Seismic hazards
- Abstract:
- On 24/08/2016, 01:36:33 UTC an earthquake of magnitude M=6.2 occurred at Norcia, Italy, killing more than 290 people, injuring 500 more, and leaving some 2,500 local inhabitants without a home. The earthquake resulted from movement on a normal fault in the Apennines mountain chain that runs along the Italian peninsula. Large destructive earthquakes of similar rupture style have occurred throughout this region in the past, most recently the 2009 M=6.4 L'Aquila event, 43 km S of the recent epicenter. Immediately after the Norcia earthquake, a UK scientific team led by the British Geological Survey, together with the University of Edinburgh, coordinated with the Instituto Nationale Geophysica e Vulcanologia (INGV) to enable the deployment of a high -density temporary seismic network to study the aftershock sequence. To date, 26 UK seismic recording stations are fully integrated with the INGV network and this will enable a high-accuracy updated earthquake catalogue to be derived with a greater regional coverage and improved magnitude sensitivity. The dataset collected within the next 6 months will be the basis of the development of aftershock forecast models and their transparent testing following international protocols. Aftershock forecasts are based on our understanding of earthquake triggering mechanisms and the empirical knowledge from previous aftershock sequence in the broader region. A validation of our forecasts using widely accepted statistical metrics is necessary in order to determine the strengths and weaknesses behind our triggering hypothesis and ensure that new knowledge will be passed on to improve operational aftershock forecasting world-wide.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/P016626/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- Standard Grant FEC
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Urgent Grant
This grant award has a total value of £52,416
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Indirect - Indirect Costs | DA - Investigators | DA - Estate Costs | DI - Staff | DI - T&S | DA - Other Directly Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £11,283 | £12,784 | £4,212 | £8,285 | £15,687 | £167 |
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