Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/P014941/1
Climate, Land-Use, and Ecosystem Services at 1.5C
Grant Award
- Principal Investigator:
- Professor P Cox, University of Exeter, Mathematical Sciences
- Co-Investigator:
- Professor C Huntingford, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Hydro-climate Risks
- Co-Investigator:
- Dr JI House, University of Bristol, Geographical Sciences
- Co-Investigator:
- Dr A Harper, University of Georgia (USA), Franklin College of Arts and Sciences
- Co-Investigator:
- Professor S Sitch, University of Exeter, Geography
- Co-Investigator:
- Professor TM Lenton, University of Exeter, Geography
- Grant held at:
- University of Exeter, Mathematical Sciences
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Terrestrial
- Overall Classification:
- Unknown
- ENRIs:
- Global Change
- Science Topics:
- Atmospheric carbon dioxide
- Carbon capture and storage
- Ecosystem impacts
- Climate & Climate Change
- Ecosystem services
- Ecosystem Scale Processes
- Abstract:
- In Paris last December, the world's governments agreed to pursue "efforts to limit the [global] temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change." More than half of the UNFCCC countries believe that a 2 degC warmer world would have impacts they couldn't cope with. Therefore, limiting climate change is extremely important for the livelihood of millions of people who live in climate-vulnerable regions around the world. Scenarios considered in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) that were designed to have a likely chance of staying below 2degC were only achievable with large-scale land-based mitigation. Land-based mitigation can include protection and enhancement of natural uptake and storage of carbon in vegetation and soils, as well as technologies to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. An example of the latter is bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. During combustion in power plants, CO2 can be extracted, transported, and stored in geologic repositories - this is the process of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). Combining bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) could result in negative emissions of CO2. BECCS is attractive since it results in a net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere while also providing a renewable source of energy. However, large-scale land-based mitigation relies on increases in land area used for mitigation and increased productivity on existing land areas, adding pressure on food and timber production, availability of freshwater, fertiliser use and biodiversity. Our project will evaluate impacts of land-use changes for mitigation contributing to a 1.5 degC climate stabilization target. A key question is: Do the negative impacts of land use change (on food and water) outweigh the positive effects of avoiding some climate change? Land will certainly play a large role in reducing the amount of climate change we see this century - it comprises up to 25% of the total emission reductions promised by individual countries in the lead-up to the Paris agreements. However, these commitments alone are not enough to reduce climate change below 2 degC, so research into methods for increasing the reductions is urgently needed. Our project brings together complementary expertise in climate, land-surface, and land-use modelling at the University of Exeter and the NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, with first-hand knowledge of national and international policy on climate change and land-use change at the University of Bristol and the Government Office for Science. We will use various scenarios of future land use and climate change to quantify the potential for CO2 removal and inform emission budgets - how much CO2 we can emit while having a likely chance of remaining below 1.5 degC. It is essential that we limit climate change while also providing food and water for the growing global population. Therefore we will also generate scenarios and check final outputs for their ability to produce sufficient food to meet the expected increasing demand for high value foods higher in energy and protein.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/P014941/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- Directed (RP) - NR1
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- One and a Half Degrees
This grant award has a total value of £107,282
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| DI - Other Costs | Indirect - Indirect Costs | DA - Investigators | DI - Staff | DA - Estate Costs | DA - Other Directly Allocated | DI - T&S | Exception - T&S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £6,210 | £31,498 | £22,992 | £29,237 | £7,246 | £462 | £8,388 | £1,250 |
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