Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/P010547/1
Reducing uncertainty in climate projections
Training Grant Award
- Lead Supervisor:
- Professor K Carslaw, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment
- Grant held at:
- University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Earth
- Freshwater
- Marine
- Terrestrial
- Overall Classification:
- Atmospheric
- ENRIs:
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Global Change
- Pollution and Waste
- Science Topics:
- Radiative Processes & Effects
- Aerosols
- Tropospheric Processes
- Climate & Climate Change
- Abstract:
- The aim of this project is to quantify how changes in aerosol emissions will affect future climate projections. The IPCC estimates of global mean aerosol radiative forcing range from -0.1 up to -2 W/m2 since the pre-industrial (comparable to greenhouse gases). This uncertainty influences climate projections in two ways. First, it influences simulated historical trends, which are compared to observed trends to provide a weight for future projections. Second, many near term climate projections follow pathways of rapid aerosol reductions. Where the real world lies in the aerosol forcing uncertainty range will determine how warming will accelerate in the next 2-4 decades (see Impact Plan). The project poses three main questions: 1) What are the main causes of uncertainty in aerosol effects on regional and global climate? 2) How much can the uncertainty realistically be reduced by constraining aerosol and cloud model processes using observations? 3) What effect does narrowing the range of aerosol forcing considered plausible imply for future projections? Are some of the projected changes more plausible than others? The student will use large model ensembles along with advanced statistical analysis techniques of experimental design, emulation and variance analysis to quantify the model spread in aerosol forcing. Then extensive aerosol and cloud observations will be used to constrain the uncertain processes to define a narrower observationally plausible forcing range. This new range will provide a context for the aerosol driven responses in the UK Climate Projection data generated by the Met Office for government. The results will enable the plausibility of strong or weak enhancement of warming to be assessed. The project will be supervised by Prof Ken Carslaw and Dr Lindsay Lee at Leeds, with CASE supervisor Dr Ben Booth at the Met Office. Lee is an academic statistician embedded in the student's School at Leeds, providing a unique opportunity for the student to develop expertise at the frontier of how statistical methodologies are used to design and analyse model simulations. The student's broad training in atmospheric science, climate change and statistics will equip them with the skills suitable for employment across much of the environmental science sector. The collaboration between Leeds and the Met Office is formalised as the Met Office Academic Partnership, which supports several CASE PhD students every year. CASE PhD project proposals are selected by a MOAP committee based on excellence as well as strategic fit and mutual benefit to the Met Office and Leeds priorities. This proposal was stimulated by the Met Office with a clear end-user objective to inform the UK Climate Projections project. Leeds and the Met Office have an outstanding PhD training environment. The Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science has 50 PhD students across climate, dynamics, impacts, with extensive programmes in observations, modelling and lab studies. ICAS's breadth enables us to offer students who focus mostly on modelling the opportunity to experience field campaigns and most undertake an overseas secondment. Wider interdisciplinary experience is guaranteed through our new cross-campus Priestley Centre (climate.leeds.ac.uk). There is an active Met Office Group at the University of Leeds (MOGUL), which meets regularly for joint working groups/seminars, shares technical expertise and ensures an energetic collaborative environment. At the Met Office, the student will sit within the Understanding Climate Change (30+ people) and the Seamless Ensemble Prediction (7 people) groups. The members of these two groups range from early year to internationally recognised scientists. Regular group meetings provide a forum to present and share work and to gain insight and feedback from your peers. They will be encouraged to contribute their own analysis as well as input into work being carried out by others in the group.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/P010547/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- DTG - directed
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Industrial CASE
This training grant award has a total value of £88,292
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Total - Fees | Total - Student Stipend | Total - RTSG |
|---|---|---|
| £17,296 | £59,998 | £11,000 |
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