Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/P010113/1
Developing actionable seasonal climate information for the wind and solar energy industry
Training Grant Award
- Lead Supervisor:
- Professor AC Maycock, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment
- Grant held at:
- University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Overall Classification:
- Atmospheric
- ENRIs:
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Global Change
- Natural Resource Management
- Science Topics:
- Climate modelling
- Climate variability
- Large scale atmos circulation
- Large scale atmos modelling
- Regional climate
- Climate & Climate Change
- Risk management
- Uncertainty estimation
- Warning systems
- Regional & Extreme Weather
- Communication of uncertainty
- Ensemble forecasting
- Solar Technology
- Wind Power
- Abstract:
- The combined global capacity for wind and solar energy is currently around 650GW and is projected to double by 2020. As the reliance on renewable energies grows, so will the need for actionable weather and climate information on seasonal timescales for planning purposes, such as to balance energy supply/demand and to schedule maintenance. There have been a number of recent advances in the predictive capability of state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems for capturing major drivers of seasonal weather and climate variability, including the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This PhD project will quantify how these advances in the prediction of key modes of seasonal climate variability can be exploited to provide improved longer-range climate information (e.g. wind intensity, surface insolation) for the energy sector. The focus will be on predictions for North America and Europe, since these are regions where the NAO and ENSO play an important role for climate and where there is substantial current and projected capacity for wind and solar energy. The project will address two main questions that build on findings from the recent European Provision Of Regional Impacts Assessments on Seasonal and Decadal Timescales project, in which the host academic institution played a key role: 1) How do modes of climate variability (e.g. NAO, ENSO) affect predictive skill for wind and solar energy production, and how can these effects be communicated to industry? 2) What is the potential for combined (joint) predictive skill for wind and solar energy production and how are these affected by NAO/ENSO? The above questions will be addressed using simulations from the Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP). CHFP provides initialized ensemble hindcasts at 4 month lead times for at least two start dates per year (1 November/May) from 1989 to present (some from 1979). The student will evaluate the hindcast skill for regional low-level wind and surface insolation for summer (June-August) and winter (December-February) using a variety of skill scores (e.g. Brier skill score), as well as quantify NAO/ENSO effects on skill. This analysis will be assisted by the Met Office project partner. The simulations will be compared to meteorological reanalysis data and, where available, station based data (e.g. MIDAS data for the UK). The student will subsequently consider the joint conditional skill for wind and solar energy production using select case studies (e.g. at times when the skill for upper tercile winds is above a threshold, what is the skill for solar radiation?). This analysis will be used to produce maps of joint forecast skill by region and season. In the spring of year 1 of the project, the student will undertake a 2.5 month placement at CASE partner the World Energy Meteorology Council (WEMC) where they will conduct interviews with at least 6 energy sector partners in North America and Europe. The interviews will identify the climate information that is most valuable to end-users (e.g. forecast lead times, percentiles for key climate variables), and will guide the analysis of seasonal forecasts described above. The unique integration of social science techniques and industry engagement with the core physical science components of the project will ensure that the project delivers impact. The project outcomes will be communicated to end-users as part of a workshop hosted at WEMC.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/P010113/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- DTG - directed
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Industrial CASE
This training grant award has a total value of £88,292
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Total - Fees | Total - RTSG | Total - Student Stipend |
|---|---|---|
| £17,296 | £11,000 | £59,998 |
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