Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/N012356/1
Probability and Uncertainty in Risk Estimation and Communication
Grant Award
- Principal Investigator:
- Professor IG Main, University of Edinburgh, Sch of Geosciences
- Co-Investigator:
- Dr S Sargeant, British Geological Survey, Earth Hazards & Observatories
- Co-Investigator:
- Dr M Naylor, University of Edinburgh, Sch of Geosciences
- Grant held at:
- University of Edinburgh, Sch of Geosciences
- Science Area:
- Earth
- Freshwater
- Terrestrial
- Overall Classification:
- Unknown
- ENRIs:
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Science Topics:
- Environmental policy/regulation
- Spatial Planning
- Avalanches
- Debris flows
- Earthquakes
- Flood risk
- Risk analysis
- Risk management
- Seismicity
- Uncertainty communication
- Geohazards
- Geography of natural hazards
- Geographies of environmental risk
- Environmental Geography
- Abstract:
- Our overall aim is to build earthquake resilience in China by improving (a) the assessment of seismic hazard and risk from earthquakes and consequent events and (b) the communication and use of probabilistic information in the development of more proportionate and risk-based strategies for disaster risk reduction. We will build on and extend a recently-developed historical catalogue for earthquakes, extend it for the first time to include consequent events (landslides, debris/mud-flows, outburst floods), unify this new database with modern instrumental data, use state-of the art statistical techniques to quantify the associated uncertainties, and incorporate social science-based understanding of risk communication and governance to improve policy development and implementation. The work programme will be carried out in Si-chuan (including the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake) and Yun-nan provinces. While they are both tectonically active, and mountainous, and thus vulnerable not only to earthquakes but also to consequent hazards of earthquake-triggered landslides and flooding, Si-chuan is one of the wealthiest provinces in China, while Yun-nan is one of poorest. These differences in wealth, combined with the recency of the devastating 2008 Wenchuan in Si-chuan compared to the more attenuated memory of the 1996 Lijiang earthquake in Yun-nan, make for a natural experiment in which to test the efficacy of improved probabilistic assessment of risk and associated uncertainty to people and property by earthquakes, and consequent event hazards, in supporting more risk-based approaches to disaster reduction. This project will promote long-term sustainable growth in earthquake prone regions of China by improving both the assessment of earthquake hazard and consequent event risk and the communication, understanding, and use of the resulting probabilistic forecasts for disaster risk reduction by policymakers and local publics. It addresses several specific capacity gaps identified in successive Chinese national disaster risk reduction strategies. As well as engaging with policymakers at both the national and local levels to improve the effectiveness of emergency planning and building code regulation, we will also engage directly with local publics to enhance public understanding of risk and capacity to deal with it. In so doing, the project will also fulfil the UK's Official Development Assistance (ODA) commitment to promoting "the economic development and welfare of developing countries" by drawing on UK's science base to address a key vulnerability differentially affecting the very poorest in China.
- Period of Award:
- 25 Jan 2016 - 31 Mar 2019
- Value:
- £203,664 Lead Split Award
Authorised funds only
- NERC Reference:
- NE/N012356/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- Directed - International
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- IRNHiC
This grant award has a total value of £203,664
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Indirect - Indirect Costs | DA - Investigators | DA - Estate Costs | DI - Staff | DI - T&S | DA - Other Directly Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £58,123 | £32,482 | £22,503 | £65,808 | £23,110 | £1,638 |
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