Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/N008340/1
Solar and space weather-related impacts on middle atmosphere composition and connections to surface weather and climate
Training Grant Award
- Lead Supervisor:
- Professor M Chipperfield, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment
- Grant held at:
- University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Overall Classification:
- Atmospheric
- ENRIs:
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Global Change
- Science Topics:
- Stratospheric Processes
- Tropospheric Processes
- Upper Atmos Process & Geospace
- Abstract:
- The goal of this project is to improve the representation of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) in UK Met Office model which is used to provide seasonal weather forecasts and climate predictions. This model will be the basis of future space weather forecasting by the Met Office. The Met Office, the CASE partner, is mandated to provide operational space weather alerts and forecasts for the UK. Severe space weather can impact electricity power grids, aviation, satellites, GNSS positioning, navigation and timing and High Frequency radio communications. Because of this, space weather appears on the UK National Risk Assessment. A recent Royal Academy of Engineering report estimated impacts on UK Critical National Infrastructure from an extreme space weather event could include local electricity interruptions for a few hours, outage of around 10% of spacecraft for hours to days, ~1200 times increased risk to aircraft avionics, and partial or complete inoperability of GNSS for 1-3 days. A strategic goal of the research programme that supports the Met Office space weather operational forecasts is the development of a coupled Sun-to-Earth modeling system for improved forecast capability. Core to this coupled system is the development of a "high top" version of the Unified Model (UM) which extends from the Earth's surface to the thermosphere and ionosphere. Connecting the lower/middle atmosphere to the thermosphere should lead to a better representation of the thermosphere, and also the ionosphere (since the thermospheric neutral composition strongly controls the ionosphere). Variations in solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation associated with the 11-year solar cycle cause changes to stratospheric ozone which in turn can affect tropospheric weather and climate. Space weather events can also lead to enhanced precipitation of energetic particles, which can produce HOx and NOx in the upper atmosphere. Since the NOx perturbations are long-lived they can be transported to the stratosphere where they can deplete ozone and thus also affect the troposphere. Although these UV and particle precipitation effects may impact the troposphere via a similar stratosphere / troposphere interaction mechanism, more research is needed to understand the relative importance of each effect, and how they interact. Atmospheric models with high lids have been shown to produce more realistic forecasts and climate simulations through better descriptions of the stratosphere and in particular ozone. It is therefore essential that stratospheric ozone perturbations are simulated accurately, including via a more comprehensive representation of impacts of the processes described above. This project will develop and implement a UM MLT chemistry scheme, thereby considerably increasing the accuracy of the extended model, and moving it closer to the point where it can be used for operational space weather forecasting. The project could also have secondary benefits to Met Office terrestrial weather forecasts. For example, a raised lid may lead to improved assimilation of satellite radiances sensitive to the mesosphere into the Met Office operational terrestrial weather forecasting system (since the radiance weighting functions extend above the existing UM upper boundary). The extended chemistry scheme will also give a better representation of those impacts of energetic particle precipitation (i.e. a reduction in stratospheric ozone) which can lead to improved seasonal forecasts and climate simulations. The specific objectives of the studentship are: - Add a detailed description of mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT) neutral and ion chemistry to the extended Unified Model. - Investigate the impact of UV changes and precipitating energetic particles on stratospheric ozone. - Investigate the impact of these changes in ozone on tropospheric climate, via multi-year simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere-chemistry version of the UM.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/N008340/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- DTG - directed
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Industrial CASE
This training grant award has a total value of £88,304
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Total - Fees | Total - Student Stipend | Total - RTSG |
|---|---|---|
| £17,309 | £59,997 | £11,000 |
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