Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/M010155/1
Predictability of European marine climate over seasons to decades
Training Grant Award
- Lead Supervisor:
- Professor D Stevens, University of East Anglia, Mathematics
- Grant held at:
- University of East Anglia, Mathematics
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Marine
- Overall Classification:
- Marine
- ENRIs:
- Biodiversity
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Global Change
- Natural Resource Management
- Science Topics:
- Climate & Climate Change
- Regional & Extreme Weather
- Ocean - Atmosphere Interact.
- Ocean Circulation
- Abstract:
- The underlying ocean warming trend associated with anthropogenic climate change is superimposed upon natural variability of the climate system on interannual to multi-decadal timescales and between regions. The result is that, even with a long-term 'anthropogenic' warming trend, in different regions there will be some decades in the future that will show particularly strong warming while others will exhibit little change or even cooling. This shorter timescale climate change over seasons to decades is particularly relevant to marine managers at national and international level, which has led to the development of this Industrial CASE project between Cefas and the University of East Anglia. The collaboration brings together academic expertise in climate modelling and prediction and government science provision in marine management and policy advice. Answering the question of what could happen in the future has generally been undertaken using climate projections where a climate model run under a particular emissions scenario is used to examine plausible conditions 50 to 100 years in the future. For instance, phase three of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) contributed the climate projections to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In recent years studies examining both coupled atmosphere-ocean models and empirical statistical models have begun to demonstrate the potential for skillful climate predictions on decadal time scales particularly in the North Atlantic region associated with the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO). Furthermore, it has recently been shown that the AMO is an important contributor to ecosystem change in the seas around UK and Ireland. Whilst remaining a number of years away the combination of improved understanding of the influence of Atlantic variability on UK marine ecosystems together with short term 'climate' predictions presents the possibility of ecosystem forecasts on seasonal to decadal timescales becoming part of national and international marine management. The current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) comprises long-term (century time scale) simulations initialised from free running models as produced in previous CMIPs. However it additionally provides near-term (decadal) forecasts that are initialised from an observed ocean state. Ten-year forecasts are produced every 5 years from 1960 to 2005, with optional additional forecasts for more recent years. The decadal forecast programme allows contributions to CMIP5 from relatively high-resolution models. This is important in the context of the project, as it has been demonstrated that higher resolution models have the capability to provide more regional detail than conventional CMIP/IPCC class models. Most of the work on decadal predictability has focussed on global and basin scale predictions, or on important outcomes for mainstream terrestrial users. Here the student will use the output from the CMIP5 decadal forecast programme to answer the following key questions: (i) Are elements of the marine climate (for example, temperature, salinity, wind) predictable on the time scales (seasons to decades) and space scales (for example, U.K. Exclusive Economic Zone, ICES Ecosystem Assessment Regions) relevant to marine policy makers and managers? (ii) What are the uncertainties and causes of any predictability? (iii) What types of seasonal-decadal forecast methods are most appropriate for different marine users on different timescales?
- NERC Reference:
- NE/M010155/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- DTG - directed
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Industrial CASE
This training grant award has a total value of £88,296
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Total - Fees | Total - Student Stipend | Total - RTSG |
|---|---|---|
| £17,297 | £60,002 | £11,000 |
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