Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/M009793/1
Using global and regional crop models to inform adaptation
Training Grant Award
- Lead Supervisor:
- Professor AJ Challinor, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment
- Grant held at:
- University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Earth
- Freshwater
- Marine
- Terrestrial
- Overall Classification:
- Terrestrial
- ENRIs:
- Biodiversity
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Global Change
- Natural Resource Management
- Pollution and Waste
- Science Topics:
- Agricultural systems
- Climate change
- Climate & Climate Change
- Land - Atmosphere Interactions
- Abstract:
- The global imperative is to enable adaptation to changes in the world's climates if we are to succeed in delivering global food security. One of the challenges of adaptation is being able to know in advance and with some degree of certainty what the effects of climate change will be on our ability to grow crops. Crop modelling is an established scientific method for predicting the impacts of climate on food production. Predictions are made for general or specific contexts on either global or regional scales. The uncertainty inherent in the information produced by predictive models is a contributing barrier to the use of this information in adaptation planning. This CASE studentship will explore this problem by looking at how scaling in impact modelling affects the meaningful use of impact assessments for adaption planning.Existing stakeholder networks will be used to ensure that the regional-scale assessments are useful. The project will also reduce the uncertainty in globalscale assessments of crop yield, thus providing more robust evidence for policy makers. Crop models will be used to make directly-comparable assessments of impacts at both regional and global scales. This studentship will explore how regional and global studies might be used synergistically to develop regional adaptation options and deliver global-scale assessment of impacts and adaptation. The underlying research questions for this aim are: 1. What is the value of the greater detail used in regional impacts studies for the skill of a given impacts model? 2. What are the potential synergies between global and regional-scale impacts models? The student will determine, for example, whether the value of regional models is primarily through model calibration techniques or improved data quality. The student will use global-scale protocols from other accepted models (e.g. Inter-sectoral Impact Model for Intercomparison Project - ISIMIP) that describe a set of regional changes and compare the outputs to those from existing regional-scale simulations. Two models will be used: the General Large-Area Model for annual crops (GLAM), which is a tool for assessing the impacts of climate variability and change on annual crops; and the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), which was originally developed to provide surface boundary conditions for climate models. If time allows the project scope could potentially be widened to include models that are used in other impact sectors studied in the ISIMIP (e.g. water resources). Simulations will be performed both for the present day (to investigate changes in skill) and using future climate scenarios (to assess differences in estimated future impacts). Appropriate statistical techniques for assessing skill will be chosen and applied. Finally, using the outcomes from the model simulations above, the project will assess how robust information on societal impact can be delivered to users and stakeholders by understanding user/stakeholder needs for information and assessing the value of regional studies relative to global impacts studies for users. We will also provide recommendations on how regional studies could be made more relevant to stakeholders. The University of Leeds will work in collaboration with the Met Office, for whom this project has direct relevance for their core work on the Hadley Centre Climate Programme (HCCP). The work carried out in this CASE project will compare impact models developed at Leeds which are different to those used in HCCP and will bring new insights through looking at different scales using alternative setup methodologies to those employed in HCCP. As such the Case project is well aligned to, and complementary to the on-going HCCP project at the Met Office.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/M009793/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- DTG - directed
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Industrial CASE
This training grant award has a total value of £85,122
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Total - Fees | Total - RTSG | Total - Student Stipend |
|---|---|---|
| £16,587 | £11,000 | £57,538 |
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