Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/M009599/1
Understanding Future Changes in Tropical Rainfall and its Variability
Training Grant Award
- Lead Supervisor:
- Professor M Collins, University of Exeter, Engineering Computer Science and Maths
- Grant held at:
- University of Exeter, Engineering Computer Science and Maths
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Marine
- Overall Classification:
- Atmospheric
- ENRIs:
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Global Change
- Pollution and Waste
- Science Topics:
- Large Scale Dynamics/Transport
- Ocean - Atmosphere Interact.
- Water In The Atmosphere
- Climate & Climate Change
- Regional & Extreme Weather
- Abstract:
- Changes in regional tropical rainfall under anthropogenic forcing are one of the least-certain areas of current climate projections, but have the potential to have enormous impacts on agriculture, food and water security and biodiversity in many countries. The patterns of rainfall change in model projections are closely tied to changes in patterns of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) (Xie et al. 2010). Large-scale coupled atmosphere ocean processes are clearly at play and are related to, but are not direct analogues of, those processes responsible for interannual variability such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Uncertainty in future changes is likely to be related to common present-day climate model biases, but this relationship is not well understood. This PhD project will seek to improve our understanding of future changes in tropical rainfall and its seasonal variability. The main research questions are: 1) How are changes in mean tropical precipitation patterns across the tropics related to changes in interannual/seasonal rainfall variability, and modes of variability such as ENSO and the India Ocean Dipole (IOD)? How do coupled atmosphereocean processes work across different timescales? 2) Can we use observations of present-day tropical variability, and analysis of climate model biases, to evaluate likely errors in future projections of mean rainfall change? Can we narrow-down or constrain the range of responses we see across models? 3) How do changes in mean state rainfall in the tropics impact on natural modes of variability like ENSO? Do uncertainties in mean climate change lead to uncertainties in changes in variability? Work will involve analysis of model projections from the CMIP5 database, observational datasets (e.g. GPCP, TRMM, CMAP, GPCC, HadISST), and additional model experiments focused on ENSO changes performed using Met Office Hadley Centre models. Tropical variability has been significantly improved in recent versions of the model due to the introduction of a more accurate dynamical core.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/M009599/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- DTG - directed
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Industrial CASE
This training grant award has a total value of £85,122
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Total - Fees | Total - RTSG | Total - Student Stipend |
|---|---|---|
| £16,587 | £11,000 | £57,538 |
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