Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/M009211/1
Modelling the effect of marine renewable developments on UK seabird populations
Training Grant Award
- Lead Supervisor:
- Professor J Matthiopoulos, University of Glasgow, College of Medical, Veterinary, Life Sci
- Grant held at:
- University of Glasgow, College of Medical, Veterinary, Life Sci
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Marine
- Terrestrial
- Overall Classification:
- Marine
- ENRIs:
- Biodiversity
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Natural Resource Management
- Science Topics:
- Behavioural Ecology
- Conservation Ecology
- Population Ecology
- Alternative Energy Marine
- Energy - Marine & Hydropower
- Ecosystem Scale Processes
- Abstract:
- Britain has become the world leader in offshore renewables, with more offshore wind turbines consented in UK waters than in the rest of the world combined, and many new developments proposed (~100 projects within the North Sea, ~ 1000 turbines now operating, ~2,500 currently in planning, ~5,000 proposed developments yet to enter planning applications, and more to come including possible floating wind farms). Britain also holds internationally important populations of many seabird species. Impacts of marine renewables on seabird populations are uncertain, but some species (gannet, kittiwake, large gulls, auks, divers) are key consenting concerns, especially in the North Sea. All breeding seabird species in the UK are protected by EU law with over 80 designated Special Protection Area, representing a potential constraint on offshore renewables development, as cumulative impacts could at some point exceed legal thresholds. This project will address the urgent need for a tool assessing direct and indirect impacts of renewables on seabirds, assisting developers and regulators in resolving this important human-wildlife conflict. The key to a solution lies in finding a biological basis for maximising the precision of impact estimates, given current and future data, while remaining within a precautionary approach. The student will work with academic/industrial supervisors, staff of the statutory nature conservation bodies (SNCBs) and regulators to develop a modelling approach motivated by the principles of population viability analysis (PVA). The approach will recognise the metapopulation structure of seabird populations, their seasonal migrations, the overlap of different regional populations and the concept of biologically defined minimum population scales (BDMPS) being promoted by SNCBs. Specifically, it will: 1) Exploit incoming data (from rangefinders and radar) to re-evaluate the assumptions and quantitative predictions of the Band model for collision risk in the vicinity of individual turbines. 2) Use colony-based observations on trip durations and body condition of individuals, to quantify the prevalence of flight displacement and its possible energetic implications for foraging birds during different seasons (taking offspring provisioning into account). 3) Develop a spatial model comprising the positions of a colony, its associated feeding grounds and the location of marine renewable developments. With the aid of results from (1) and (2), this will lead to situation-specific estimates of the demographic impacts of proposed developments, including direct collision mortality and reductions in long-term survival of adults and chicks. 4) Use the detailed demographic data available for most seabird species and the high quality colony census data available for seabirds in the UK (up to a century of data for some species) in semi-mechanistic PVA models of the growth of single colonies in response to historical fluctuations in fish stocks, local density and competition/immigration from nearby colonies. 5) Use the PVA model to project likely future dynamics. This modelling will assess projected population level impacts of marine renewables at an appropriate spatial scale (regions of the UK marine area or the whole of UK waters depending on the seabird species), with the consequences of impacts partitioned by season (since populations at risk differ among seasons).
- NERC Reference:
- NE/M009211/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- DTG - directed
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Industrial CASE
This training grant award has a total value of £85,122
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Total - Fees | Total - RTSG | Total - Student Stipend |
|---|---|---|
| £16,587 | £11,000 | £57,538 |
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