Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/M006727/1
Extreme Flood Events: Forecasting, Modelling and Response
Training Grant Award
- Lead Supervisor:
- Dr NA Chappell, Lancaster University, Lancaster Environment Centre
- Grant held at:
- Lancaster University, Lancaster Environment Centre
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Freshwater
- Terrestrial
- Overall Classification:
- Freshwater
- ENRIs:
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Global Change
- Natural Resource Management
- Pollution and Waste
- Science Topics:
- Climate & Climate Change
- Regional & Extreme Weather
- Hydrological Processes
- Water Quality
- Abstract:
- The recent flooding in the UK and extensive news coverage has highlighted the importance of accurate and timely forecasting to inform the response to extreme meteorological or hydrological events and increase our resilience to risks from flooding. The course will address the need to train NERC-funded students in modelling techniques and will cover the concepts of risk and uncertainty, in particular their interpretation and impact on decision making in real world situations. This intensive residential training course will cover the latest hydrological and meteorological forecasting methods and the concepts and processes involved in flow forecasting. Students will be introduced to commercially available models for real time flood forecasting and warning systems and the concepts of variability, uncertainty and accuracy in short term forecasting. It will also cover longer term climate prediction and the concepts and principals of uncertainty. The course will include a simulated flood response exercise to enable students to understand how forecasting and spatial analysis is applied and how uncertainty and variability in forecasting is dealt with in a real world context. This will utilise Exercise Management System software which simulates hydrometric data, displaying rainfall and river level information, automatic alarms, radar imagery and exercise injects to test response to realistic flooding scenarios. Participants will learn the concepts, processes and components of flood forecasting and modelling (meteorological and hydrological) and their limitations including: the difference between simulation modelling and real time modelling: inputs that change over time and data assimilation (error correction). They will also observe how data flows and hierarchies are managed by a forecasting system and use predictive models for runoff generation, flow routing and hydrodynamic effects. They will be introduced to different types of forecast, their strengths and weaknesses and suitability for different applications, experience how flood forecasting is applied during extreme event response and management and how to interpret forecast results and communicate risk and uncertainty. In addition to the specific flood forecasting skills and knowledge imparted throught the course, the participants will gain multidisciplinary and transferable skills pertaining to the management of uncertainty and interpreting and communicating levels of risk and scientific/technical methods in the context of policy, legislation and practice. They will also improve their problem solving skills, ability to translate research into practice, interpretion of complex concepts and communication of risk and uncertainty.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/M006727/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- Doctoral Training
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Advanced Training
This training grant award has a total value of £34,761
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Total - Other Costs |
|---|
| £34,761 |
If you need further help, please read the user guide.