Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/L011549/1
Past epidemics as predictors of disease evolution over space and time
Fellowship Award
- Fellow:
- Dr SKJ Auld, University of Stirling, Biological and Environmental Sciences
- Grant held at:
- University of Stirling, Biological and Environmental Sciences
- Science Area:
- Freshwater
- Overall Classification:
- Freshwater
- ENRIs:
- Biodiversity
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Global Change
- Science Topics:
- Animal diseases
- Host-pathogen interactions
- Disease transmission
- Epidemiology
- Climate & Climate Change
- Population Ecology
- Evolution & populations
- Abstract:
- Past epidemics as predictors of disease evolution over space and time The Earth's climate is changing: temperatures are rising and freak weather events, such as floods, droughts and heat waves, are becoming more frequent. These changing weather patterns are influencing the spread and severity of many infectious diseases. Pests that blight human crops are spreading polewards at an average rate of two miles a year and diseases of humans are also shifting: dengue outbreaks occur in the USA, and the UK climate is predicted to be suitable for malaria by 2050. Many of these diseases are occur in epidemics - devastating outbreaks that eventually wane, only to occur again in the future. Epidemics are known to drive evolution in natural host populations: individuals that are susceptible to the infectious parasites are eliminated, leaving behind a more resistant population. However, evolution in the host population can drive counter-evolution in the epidemic-causing parasite population: as the susceptible individuals are eliminated, the parasites that are able to infect the more resistant individuals are favoured by natural selection. This is coevolution. Coevolution is not just driven by epidemics; epidemics are also driven by coevolution. This is because the rate and nature of coevolution determines the genetic makeup of both host and parasite populations, and diseases spread much more slowly, i.e., epidemics are smaller, when host populations are genetically diverse. Climate change is causing fluctuations in parasite transmission between hosts, often leading to more frequent and severe epidemics. But how do current epidemics influence those of the future? Do warmer temperatures, and the large epidemics that follow, lead to smaller or larger epidemics in the long-term? We currently do not know the answer to this; my proposal seeks to change that. I will test how ambient temperatures and mixing of hosts and parasites (which often happens as a result of freak weather events such as flooding) influences both coevolution and epidemic severity. What is more, I will do this both in the wild - the natural arena of host-parasite interactions - and in artificial outdoor ponds where the temperature can be experimentally manipulated. In the laboratory, I will also quantify how parasite adaptation to the current host population affects its infectivity and growth on future populations (the offspring of the current hosts). I will examine how epidemics in the first year drive epidemic size and severity in subsequent years. This will allow me to generate models that can predict the severity of future disease outbreaks based on past epidemic information. Ultimately, my aim is to develop tools that better predict the likelihood and severity of disease epidemics in an increasingly variable world.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/L011549/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- Research Fellowship
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- IRF
This fellowship award has a total value of £462,977
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| DI - Other Costs | Indirect - Indirect Costs | DA - Estate Costs | DI - Staff | DI - T&S | DA - Other Directly Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £97,499 | £130,326 | £42,043 | £184,483 | £5,856 | £2,772 |
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