Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/K012533/1
Improving Prediction of Fronts
Grant Award
- Principal Investigator:
- Professor C Cotter, Imperial College London, Aeronautics
- Grant held at:
- Imperial College London, Aeronautics
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Overall Classification:
- Atmospheric
- ENRIs:
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Global Change
- Science Topics:
- Large Scale Dynamics/Transport
- Climate & Climate Change
- Regional & Extreme Weather
- Ocean Circulation
- Abstract:
- Once a weather model has been initialised from our best estimate of the current state of the atmosphere, it will diverge from the real state of the atmosphere over time. The period of time during which a single deterministic weather model provides useful information is known as the "useful forecast range'', which provides a measure of the predictive skill of the model. For example, the ECMWF useful forecast range is now typically between 7 and 10 days. Extending the useful forecast range of weather forecasts (and improving accuracy over that range) would have clear benefits to society and the economy; benefits include: energy management, protection of infrastructure, coordinating disaster response, agricultural planning, planning in travel and leisure industries, transportation management, targeting of weather-sensitive health conditions, water resource management, improved decision making in commodity markets, environmental decision making and natural resource management. In this project, we will develop a means of understanding of some current limitations to predictive skill and the useful forecast range, and will investigate practical methodologies for removing them. This is of course a huge topic; we shall restrict our investigation to the dry dynamical core (the part of the model that predicts winds, temperatures and pressures), and concentrate on one important phenomena, namely the evolution of fronts and, in particular, the resulting feedback on the large scale atmospheric circulation. Fronts play a key role in the delivery of precipitation, and many severe weather events, which have an important role in all of the socioeconomic areas discussed above. The challenge associated with fronts is that although the distance from one side of a weather front to another is very small compared to the distance between two grid points in an operational forecast model, fronts have a significant impact on the wind speed and direction as well as the pressure over a large region around the front. The aim of this project is to find improvements in dynamical core design that can improve the prediction of the winds and pressures in the vicinity of fronts.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/K012533/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- Standard Grant (FEC)
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Standard Grant
This grant award has a total value of £305,548
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| DI - Other Costs | Indirect - Indirect Costs | DA - Investigators | DI - Staff | DA - Estate Costs | DA - Other Directly Allocated | DI - T&S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £8,277 | £103,128 | £26,317 | £113,843 | £44,500 | £3,306 | £6,179 |
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