Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/K007599/1
[CLIMATE] Understanding changes in the risk of zoonotic disease outbreaks as a result of climate change: insights from a seasonal host-parasite system
Training Grant Award
- Lead Supervisor:
- Professor A Fenton, University of Liverpool, Institute of Integrative Biology
- Grant held at:
- University of Liverpool, Institute of Integrative Biology
- Science Area:
- Terrestrial
- Overall Classification:
- Terrestrial
- ENRIs:
- Biodiversity
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Global Change
- Science Topics:
- None
- Abstract:
- Climate change and emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are two major threats to our society. Both threaten human health, both directly and indirectly, and potentially through their interactions. Nevertheless, our ability to predict climate change impacts on disease outbreaks remains poor. This study aims to identify the climatic determinants of parasitic infections in a wild primate population in a seasonal environment, to enable us to better predict the risk of zoonotic disease outbreaks arising from climate change. Zoonotic diseases are particularly important, given they are the most common source of EIDs. We focus on primates because they are a major source of EIDs (reflecting our shared evolutionary history) and the majority are threatened with extinction and so also at risk from disease outbreaks. Similarly, our study focuses on a seasonal environment because climate change is expected to have a significant impact on seasonality, and a seasonal system gives us more power to explore the impacts of climate on host-parasite relationships. The study will be conducted in two stages. In Stage I, an empirical investigation will investigate the pathways through which climate might affect the host risk of parasite encounter and infection. In Stage 2, an individual-based model of climate-host-parasite dynamics will be developed to explore the impacts of climate change and implications for zoonotic outbreaks. Stage I will be conducted over five steps in a baboon population with five different endoparasites: three with direct faecaloral transmission, and two with indirect transmission via insect vectors. Step 1 will explore climatic influences on the parasites' probability of host encounter (e.g. climatic determinants of cyst survival and vector abundance). Step 2 will investigate climate effects on the hosts' probability of parasite encounter (e.g. climatic effects on ranging and use of resource hotspots). Step 3 will assess climatic effects on host susceptibility to infection following encounter (e.g. climatic influences on food resources and thus host condition). Step 4 will combine the response variables in Steps 1-3 to assess their role in mediating the observed patterns of parasite infection (e.g. cyst density at waterholes, frequency of waterhole use, and physical condition during waterhole visits). Step 5 will integrate the findings of Steps 1-4 to explore the pathways leading from climate to encounter/infection risk to parasitism. Stage I will involve a combination of (i) behavioural observations of the hosts (using individual focal follows, group scans, and GPS tracks), (ii) the collection of host faecal samples, and water/soil samples, for parasitological analysis, and (iii) the monitoring of plant food phenology (vegetation surveys), insect vector abundance (pitfall traps), and baboon condition (field scales, calibrated photography). Long-term historical data from the study system will also be available. Water and soil temperatures, and soil moisture, will be recorded using thermocouple and soil-moisture probes; while wider climatic data will be collected using a digital weather station and, for specific localities (e.g. waterholes), portable microclimate dataloggers. Stage II will be conducted in two steps. In Step 1, an individual-based model, comprising host and parasite submodels, will be developed and validated on the basis of the field study. The model will be used to explore changes in parasite infections as a result of climate change. In Step 2, the model will investigate potential zoonotic impacts by adding a human population submodel and focussing on those parasites with human pathogenicity (e.g. B. coli). The potential effects of climate change will then be investigated by running the model for a range of scenarios. The model design will be kept general, such that while initially parameterised from this study, a variety of other host-parasite systems can also be explored.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/K007599/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- DTG - directed
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Open CASE
This training grant award has a total value of £87,843
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Total - DSA | Total - Fees | Total - RTSG | Total - Student Stipend |
|---|---|---|---|
| £1,392 | £13,978 | £23,279 | £49,194 |
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