Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/J01642X/1
[AGRIFOOD] A Data-Oriented Predictive Ecology Approach to Modelling Fish Communities during Regime Shifts
Training Grant Award
- Lead Supervisor:
- Dr A Tucker, Brunel University London, Computer Science
- Grant held at:
- Brunel University London, Computer Science
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Earth
- Freshwater
- Marine
- Terrestrial
- Overall Classification:
- Marine
- ENRIs:
- Biodiversity
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Global Change
- Natural Resource Management
- Pollution and Waste
- Science Topics:
- None
- Abstract:
- Some spectacular collapses in fish stocks have occurred in the past 20 years but the most notable is the once largest cod stock in the world, the Northern cod stock off eastern Newfoundland, which experienced a 99% decline in biomass. Cod unfortunately, is not alone and there are stocks of various species that have been reduced to only a small percentage of stock sizes in recent history. Much of this effect is due to direct mortality on fish through fishing and subsequent indirect effects and weak linkages to other species. Some of these regions may have moved to an 'alternative stable state' or experienced a 'regime shift' and are unlikely to return to a cod dominated community for many years (possibly decades) without some chance environmental event beyond human control (Groger and Fogarty, 2011). Indeed, Rothschild and Shannon (2004) pointed out that "Multi-decadal fluctuations in fish population abundance are often dramatic in magnitude and understanding the variability in fish populations related to regime shifts is complicated because the abundance of fish populations is driven by both environmental forcing and fishing". We will focus on using state-of-the-art computational techniques based upon Dynamic Bayesian Networks with latent variables to both integrate human expertise with extensive empirical data and model unmeasured factors in order to predict collapses in different fish communities. What is more we will exploit functional equivalence between different communities to identify equivalent species in different regions and therefore predict functional collapse.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/J01642X/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- DTG - directed
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Open CASE
This training grant award has a total value of £74,596
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Total - Fees | Total - RTSG | Total - Student Stipend |
|---|---|---|
| £13,812 | £5,500 | £55,285 |
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