Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/J012726/1
Pliocene Gateways ('PlioGate')
Grant Award
- Principal Investigator:
- Professor P Valdes, University of Bristol, Geographical Sciences
- Co-Investigator:
- Professor AM Haywood, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment
- Grant held at:
- University of Bristol, Geographical Sciences
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Earth
- Marine
- Overall Classification:
- Atmospheric
- ENRIs:
- Global Change
- Science Topics:
- Climate & Climate Change
- Palaeoenvironments
- Ocean - Atmosphere Interact.
- Ocean Circulation
- Abstract:
- In the wake of rising greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane, how will the climate evolve over the next 100 years? This question is paramount in the minds of scientists and politicians alike. However, despite over 100 years of research into climate sensitivity, the range of projected future warming remains startling wide; 1.5 to 6.1 degrees C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The disagreement between projections made by different climate models makes a considerable contribution to this uncertainty. Because a compromise must be reached between the limits of technology and our knowledge of climate processes, climate models are necessarily approximations of reality. As a result, all models differ in terms of the processes they represent and the resolution they run at. This is why climate models produce different results even though they are based on the same mathematical principles. It is also why it is crucial to test the models, to make sure that they really are capable of simulating Earth's climate. As there are no observations for future climate change, we look to the past to evaluate climate models. The instrumental record provides one such test of the model. However, throughout the short duration of our instrumental record, climate change has been small in comparison to projected changes for the next 100 years. This makes the instrumental record an inadequate definitive test of the models and we must test the models in other time periods too. The last time atmospheric CO2 was as high as today was during a period known as the late Pliocene, specifically around 3 million years ago. Obviously there are no direct observations from so long ago, but evidence from fossil-remains of Pliocene fauna and flora show a climate-dependent chemical and biological signal, which we can use to reconstruct the climate conditions that these fauna and flora lived in. The conclusions from this work suggest that climate was 2 to 3 degrees C warmer than the Pre-Industrial era, with particularly large amplitude warming in the N.Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea. Therefore, the parallels between the Pliocene and future scenarios makes the Pliocene an ideal test case for models used to project future climate change. To date, model simulations for this period have been able to simulate the overall warmth of the Pliocene, but fail to reproduce the large amplitude warmth in the N.Atlantic GIN Sea. Recently, under the auspices of the international PlioMIP project, 14 different state-of-the-art climate models have been run for this period, but all have failed to reproduce the N.Atlantic/GIN Sea warming. We suggest that this mismatch is symptomatic of inadequate representation of ocean gateways during the Pliocene, rather than a fundamental error in climate models during warm periods. Recent work at the University of Bristol has showed that changing the way ocean gateways are set-up in a model of modern climate can impact regional climates by 5 degrees C or more. This proposal will investigate the role of two key ocean gateways, namely the Bering and Gibraltar Straits. Nobody has ever investigated whether changes in their exchange could have had an impact on Pliocene climate, despite the fact that there is evidence that the gateways were different and that they can have a big impact on climate. The results from the project will make a considerable contribution to improving our understanding of Pliocene climates and whether climate models work for past warm intervals.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/J012726/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- Small Grants (FEC)
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Small Grants
This grant award has a total value of £49,828
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| DI - Other Costs | Indirect - Indirect Costs | DA - Investigators | DA - Estate Costs | DI - Staff | DA - Other Directly Allocated | DI - T&S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £3,400 | £19,854 | £3,510 | £2,799 | £17,357 | £12 | £2,896 |
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