Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/I009388/1
Development of a European Extreme Wind Climatology
Grant Award
- Principal Investigator:
- Professor MA Saunders, University College London, Mullard Space Science Laboratory
- Grant held at:
- University College London, Mullard Space Science Laboratory
- Science Area:
- None
- Overall Classification:
- Unknown
- ENRIs:
- None
- Science Topics:
- None
- Abstract:
- CONTEXT Windstorms cause 75-80% of the long term insurance loss from natural hazards in Europe. They cannot be prevented but insurers can save both themselves and their customers costs and disruption by being well prepared and responsive. There is a need within the insurance industry to better control the effects of this peril through an understanding of its typical behaviour (climatology). Insurers have been unable to approach this question as it is considered too costly and speculative to access weather data for commercial use. Other projects have produced wind climatologies but have been based on models or proxies (rather than observations), have been too regional (a Europe-wide climatology is required as insurers often cover property across Europe) or have focussed on average conditions rather than extreme winds. The availability of an untapped, central resource for European wind observation data in the NERC BADC MIDAS dataset presents a unique opportunity to deliver novel research to benefit the research and insurance communities of the UK and Europe. The Mullard Space Science Laboratory at UCL has a strong track record of developing the results of NERC funded research projects into applications, such as those which ultimately led to the creation of EuroTempest Ltd (a novel weather information service to industry) in 2007 and the development of the successful UCL Global Drought Monitor. AIM AND OBJECTIVES 1. To develop a method which can accurately assess how frequently potentially damaging winds can be expected to occur at any chosen location in Europe. 2. To engage with the European insurance industry to secure the support and route to market of the method, both through its use and through further collaboration and development. We aim to: a) Create a set of European surface wind and gust observation data that are as accurate, cover as large an area, and for as long a time period, as is possible. b) Provide probability distributions for extreme winds for a number of European weather observation stations. c) Develop schemes for estimating probability distributions for extreme winds at any location in Europe. d) Produce clearly presented documents that explain methods, results, caveats and our recommendations for use. e) Maintain and increase the continued support and interest of industry contacts. f) Widen awareness of the project and its commercialization potential within the industry. g) Secure a route to the realization of the commercialization potential of the project. POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS A windstorm climatology enables a full assessment of wind risk on a location by location basis and thus could inform: a) Wind warning and response systems In terms of impact, how unusual the wind is is of more utility than the value of the wind speed. By comparing wind forecasts/observations with climatology insurers could quickly assess this and accurately and objectively assess the likely impact on their customers. Warning and resource management systems based on climatology would therefore enable a more informed and efficient response to extreme wind events. b) Insurance Pricing A windstorm climatology would allow insurers to more accurately price the risk from wind. c) Development and assessment of catastrophe Bonds Catastrophe Bonds are a form of alternative risk transfer used in the reinsurance market. They are typically triggered from an index which is a weighted average of wind speeds at locations across Europe. The weighting applied at each location is in large part a function of the risk posed by extreme wind, or the wind climatology. d) Other industries e.g. Construction. Many construction contracts allow for delays due to 'exceptionally inclement weather'. A windstorm climatology would allow for an assessment of when winds are 'exceptional'. It could also assist at the planning stage, in determining the likelihood and length of delays due to exceptional winds.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/I009388/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- Follow on Fund (FEC)
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Follow on Fund
This grant award has a total value of £100,715
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| DI - Other Costs | Indirect - Indirect Costs | DA - Investigators | DA - Estate Costs | DI - Staff | DI - T&S | DA - Other Directly Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £1,737 | £45,947 | £4,392 | £7,721 | £35,427 | £806 | £4,683 |
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