Details of Award

NERC Reference : NE/G015384/1

RAPID-RAPIT

Principal Investigator:: Professor M Goldstein, Durham University, Mathematical Sciences
Grant held at:: Durham University, Mathematical Sciences

ENRIs:: Global Change; Environmental Risks and Hazards
Science Topics:: Ocean Circulation; Ocean - Atmosphere Interact.; Climate & Climate Change

Abstract:: North west Europe has a relatively mild climate in part because of heat pulled north through the Atlantic by the overturning. There is a risk that global warming will cause this circulation to rapidly decrease with consequences involving not only colder winters for Europe but also changes in sea level and precipitation. This project will carry out a risk assessment of rapid changes of the Atlantic overturning. We will use two models of the climate system, HADCM3, the Hadley Centre model used in the IPCC AR4, and CHIME, a global climate model developed at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton. This has the same atmospheric model as HADCM3 but has a very different structure to the ocean component. Making use of the resources of climateprediction.net we will run a large ensemble of both models to assess the uncertainties in the system. We will then use modern Bayesian statistical techniques to combine model output, data and expert opinion in our risk assessment. An assessment of the utility of the data from the RAPID-WATCH arrays is an important aim of the project.

Authorised funds only

This grant award has a total value of £253,158

DI - Other Costs	Indirect - Indirect Costs	DA - Investigators	DA - Estate Costs	DI - Staff	DI - T&S	DA - Other Directly Allocated
£3,690	£92,407	£30,149	£12,929	£97,741	£8,207	£8,034

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