Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/F014600/1
Quantifying the state of the current carbon cycle: a model-data fusion approach using multiple constraints
Fellowship Award
- Fellow:
- Dr M Scholze, University of Bristol, Earth Sciences
- Grant held at:
- University of Bristol, Earth Sciences
- Science Area:
- Terrestrial
- Marine
- Atmospheric
- Overall Classification:
- Terrestrial
- ENRIs:
- Natural Resource Management
- Global Change
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Science Topics:
- Land - Atmosphere Interactions
- Biogeochemical Cycles
- Ocean - Atmosphere Interact.
- Climate & Climate Change
- Abstract:
- We already know that the global carbon cycle and changes in the concentration in the atmosphere of heat trapping 'greenhouse' gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) play a substantial role in shaping the planet's climate. From measurements of ice cores we can reconstruct the change of the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere as well as an estimate of the global temperature through several 100,000 years back in time. Changes from glacial times to warm phases in Earth's history go along with a difference of approximately 100 parts per million (ppm) in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. During the preceding 10000 years atmospheric CO2 levels have been relatively stable between 260 and 280 ppm and were about 280 ppm before the Industrial Revolution. We are burning large quantities of fossil fuels, thereby emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and thereby disturbing the natural carbon cycle. Anthropogenic carbon emissions are small (about 7 Gigatons of carbon per year in the 1990s) compared to the natural fluxes (about 100 Gigatons of carbon per year) in the ocean-atmosphere-biosphere system, but they cause significant changes in the environment of the Earth. At the moment atmospheric CO2 concentration is 380 ppm, and is predicted to increase by another 70 to 170 ppm by 2050, which raises concerns about climate change. From this perspective, there is an urgent need to investigate the relationship between climate and carbon cycle and what controls the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. This is what my research is about and this is also what excites me most about it: it addresses the 'big picture' questions on a global scale. For instance, how does the land vegetation, which is currently taking up CO2 from the atmosphere, react to a warmer climate in the future? The problem is, however, that the strength of this sink is under threat from the warming; in other words, global warming will lead to less CO2 uptake, or even CO2 release, which in turn will lead to additional warming. This so-called climate-carbon cycle feedback is not very well known, but the understanding of this feedback is a necessary ingredient for future climate protection measures. As we do not have spare copies of our planet, a common research tool to experiment and test ideas about the causes of atmospheric CO2 and climate changes is a computer representation of the Earth system. These computer models are based on simplifications of the regulating processes and therefore cannot exactly represent the functioning of the Earth System. However, we have to make sure that these models are consistent with how we observe the Earth system. This is usually done by qualitatively comparing model results with these observations of the Earth System such as measurements of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Another, more rigorous and quantitative way of contrasting and optimizing the models against these observations is based on a mathematical approach, which is called data assimilation. My research in this project concerns the development of a comprehensive data assimilation system for the carbon cycle. I will make use of a wide range of measurements of the carbon cycle to extensively optimize my computer models such that the results from the computer simulations are in best agreement with the observations. Using a wide range of different observations is an important aspect as the various observations help to constrain different parts of the models for instance measurements of atmospheric CO help to quantify the amount of carbon released by wildfires. But what relevance does this have to our society today and for the future? For example, my research will quantify the contribution to the contemporary land carbon sink due to direct land management. This has great policy relevance since the Kyoto protocol only allows nations to claim carbon credits for carbon accumulation due to direct land-use management.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/F014600/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- Advanced Fellow (FEC)
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Advanced Fellow
This fellowship award has a total value of £447,775
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| DI - Other Costs | Indirect - Indirect Costs | DI - Staff | DA - Estate Costs | DI - T&S | DA - Other Directly Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £27,164 | £146,092 | £218,270 | £27,035 | £11,911 | £17,304 |
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