Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/F005474/2
Detecting and classifying bifurcations in the climate system
Grant Award
- Principal Investigator:
- Professor TM Lenton, University of Exeter, Geography
- Grant held at:
- University of Exeter, Geography
- Science Area:
- None
- Overall Classification:
- Atmospheric
- ENRIs:
- None
- Science Topics:
- None
- Abstract:
- We propose to develop a general method for studying bifurcations and transitions of the Earth system, with particular focus on global climate change. As the states of the climate system can be described by analytic potential, we propose a study in which the potential would be estimated from an observed record of a climate variable. Knowing the potential and recently observed trends in the climate system (in temperature, sea level, etc.), we plan to perform computer simulations and evaluate the changes the climate potentials undergo. We will apply the bifurcation theory to study the evolution of the potential and possible bifurcations of its extremals. This will allow to make projections of time series which will be compared with projections provided by IPCC AR4. Once the method finally developed, it will be tested on artificial data with simulated dynamics, and then applied on available paleo-, historical and real-time observed data.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/F005474/2
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- Standard Grant (FEC)
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Standard Grant
This grant award has a total value of £87,513
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| DI - Other Costs | Indirect - Indirect Costs | DA - Investigators | DA - Estate Costs | DI - Staff | DI - T&S | DA - Other Directly Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £3,710 | £34,043 | £7,946 | £6,365 | £24,982 | £7,294 | £3,171 |
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