Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/E011721/1
Investigating the dependence of tropical convective system lifecycle on environmental conditions and the implications for global cloud feedback
Fellowship Award
- Fellow:
- Dr JM Futyan, University of Reading, Environmental Systems Science Centre
- Grant held at:
- University of Reading, Environmental Systems Science Centre
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Overall Classification:
- Atmospheric
- ENRIs:
- Global Change
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Science Topics:
- Water In The Atmosphere
- Tropospheric Processes
- Radiative Processes & Effects
- Climate & Climate Change
- Abstract:
- While it is now generally accepted that man-made emissions of greenhouse gases are causing climate change, predictions of the extent and rate of this change remain highly uncertain. A large part of this uncertainty comes from the difficulty in predicting how clouds will change if the climate warms. Clouds reflect sunlight back to space, cooling the Earth's surface, but they also trap heat in the atmosphere, acting like a blanket to keep the Earth warm. The balance between these effects depends on how high and how thick the cloud is, making it important to predict not only how the amount, but also the type of cloud will change. In the tropics, huge thunderstorms form almost every afternoon. Over the course of the day these storms evolve from towering columns of cloud producing torrential rain into characteristic anvil shaped clouds with tops high in the atmosphere. The anvil clouds form from moisture lifted high into the atmosphere by the storms, and can extend to several hundred kilometers in diameter, making them clearly visible in satellite pictures. Because of their large size and frequent occurrence, these anvil clouds are important in determining how much sunlight is reflected and how much heat is trapped in the Earth's atmosphere. Representing these storm systems in the computer models used to predict both weather and climate is very challenging. In the models, the Earth is divided up into boxes, the size of which is limited by the available computing resources. The anvil clouds can be larger than the grid-boxes used in current high resolution models, but the active core of the storm is too small to be resolved. Approximate relationships must therefore be used to predict when storms will occur and the properties of the anvil clouds. To improve these relationships we need to understand how the behaviour of the storms depends on the conditions in which they form and develop. It is thought that storms will be stronger in a warmer climate, reaching higher into the atmosphere. What we don't know is what this means for the properties of the anvil clouds and for the lifetime of the storm. Do stronger storms rain more heavily, leaving less moisture to form clouds? Or do they form bigger or thicker or longer-lived anvil clouds? This study will use satellite images to follow storms as they form, grow and decay and will examine how their properties and lifetime depend on their environment (how warm, dry and windy the conditions are for example). By following a large number of storms and combining the results, patterns in the behaviour can be identified. By understanding these patterns, we can start to predict how the storms and anvil clouds will change if the climate warms, and to include these processes in the complex models used to make climate change predictions. By repeating this analysis using model simulations in place of the satellite images we can test how well the current models do at capturing the patterns seen in the real world. This will help to identify how best to improve the models so that more accurate forecasts can be made.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/E011721/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- Postdoctoral Fellow (FEC)
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Postdoctoral Fellowship
This fellowship award has a total value of £234,401
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| DI - Other Costs | Indirect - Indirect Costs | DI - Staff | DA - Estate Costs | DI - T&S |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| £3,264 | £100,096 | £96,715 | £28,120 | £6,205 |
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