Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/C509174/1
Predictability of rapid climate change associated with the Atlantic thermohaline circulation.
Grant Award
- Principal Investigator:
- Professor RT Sutton, University of Reading, Meteorology
- Co-Investigator:
- Professor MR Allen, University of Oxford, Geography - SoGE
- Grant held at:
- University of Reading, Meteorology
- Science Area:
- Marine
- Atmospheric
- Overall Classification:
- Marine
- ENRIs:
- Global Change
- Science Topics:
- Ocean Circulation
- Ocean - Atmosphere Interact.
- Climate & Climate Change
- Abstract:
- Forecasts of the future behaviour of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC) are needed to inform policy on climate change. Such forecasts must be probabilistic taking into account the principal sources of uncertainty. It is not possible to sample exhaustively all sources of uncertainty because the number of degrees of freedom is too great. Consequently a future forecasting system will be reliant on strategies to identify those dimensions of uncertainty that are most important. This project will develop an objective methodology to identify the dominant sources of uncertainty in General Circulation Model predictions of the THC. Perturbations to oceanic initial conditions and climate model parameters that generate the most rapid change in the THC and related aspects of climate will be identified. These perturbations will be used to produce an early probabilistic forecast for the behaviour of the THC up to 2100. The results will also feed directly into the next generation of ensemble climate predictions being developed at the UK Hadley Centre.
- Period of Award:
- 19 Sep 2005 - 18 Sep 2008
- Value:
- £191,655 Lead Split Award
Authorised funds only
- NERC Reference:
- NE/C509174/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- Directed Pre FEC
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Rapid Climate Change
This grant award has a total value of £191,655
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Total - Staff | Total - T&S | Total - Other Costs | Total - Indirect Costs | Total - Equipment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| £118,907 | £5,175 | £7,479 | £54,697 | £5,396 |
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