Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/R01423X/1
Improving the Role of Information Systems in Anticipatory Disaster Risk Reduction (IRIS)
Grant Award
- Principal Investigator:
- Professor LA Smith, London School of Economics & Pol Sci, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Earth
- Freshwater
- Terrestrial
- Overall Classification:
- Unknown
- ENRIs:
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Global Change
- Science Topics:
- Regional & Extreme Weather
- Weather forecasting
- Ensemble forecasting
- Risk management
- Development Studies
- Humanitarian assistance
- Geohazards
- Risk analysis
- Risk management
- Abstract:
- Humanitarian agencies are able to use weather (and other) forecasts to act in anticipation of humanitarian crises. For example, when a heatwave or hurricane is forecast, supplies can be moved into position early and emergency supplies positioned or pre-distributed. This reduces the overall impact and the cost of responding to the disaster. However, financing in advance of a disaster requires a high level of confidence in the forecast, to avoid the possibility of misallocated or wasted resources. Many forecasts are currently available but not all are accompanied by an assessment of the forecast quality. For example, it may be that the forecast is over-confident, predicting an event more times than it is actually observed, or it could be under confident, failing to predict events which do then occur. We propose to develop and demonstrate a general method of measuring and displaying the information content of forecasts, using a novel idea which is based on existing research and freely available data. This will allow humanitarian agencies to act confidently in anticipation of humanitarian crises when there is sufficient information in the forecast, and to implement forecast-based financing schemes such as insurance or anticipatory funding allocation only when there is known to be confidence that the scheme will be effective.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/R01423X/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- NC&C
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- Innovation - DRF
This grant award has a total value of £258,418
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| DI - Other Costs | Indirect - Indirect Costs | DA - Investigators | DI - Staff | DA - Estate Costs | DA - Other Directly Allocated | DI - T&S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £15,487 | £98,859 | £45,971 | £72,388 | £21,086 | £173 | £4,453 |
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