Details of Award
NERC Reference : NE/S00274X/1
Philippines - Quantitative Lahar Impact and Loss Assessment under changing Land Use and Climate Scenarios
Grant Award
- Principal Investigator:
- Professor JC Phillips, University of Bristol, Earth Sciences
- Co-Investigator:
- Professor J Freer, University of Bristol, Geographical Sciences
- Co-Investigator:
- Professor AJ Hogg, University of Bristol, Mathematics
- Grant held at:
- University of Bristol, Earth Sciences
- Science Area:
- Atmospheric
- Earth
- Overall Classification:
- Unknown
- ENRIs:
- Environmental Risks and Hazards
- Global Change
- Science Topics:
- Geohazards
- Hydrological Processes
- Volcanic Processes
- Abstract:
- Lahars are volcanic mudflows that often occur during and after volcanic eruptions when ash deposited from the volcano is remobilized by rainfall. Lahars are a major hazard to people, often resulting in fatalities and displacement of communities. Lahars are a particular hazard in the Philippines due to the large number of volcanoes that erupt explosively and the tropical climate. The aim of this proposal is to develop an integrated, coherent model of lahars from their generation in catchments on volcanic flanks to their impacts on the build environment. This study has been co-developed between the University of Bristol and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) during an active volcanic crisis in the Philippines, with Mt Mayon erupting and producing lahars. The project will advance lahar hazard assessment through the development of susceptibility and impact mapping, where the impacts are inferred from a convolution of predictions of lahar inundation and damage. The proposal will develop a new collaboration between UK and Philippines partners, based on combining expertise in hydrological and hazard modelling, sedimentology, geomorphology and hydrogeology. Our study will develop new and apply new models for the hydrology of catchments with recent ash deposits, informed by field studies of these environments conducted in the Philippines. This will allow rainfall forecasts to be propagated into lahar source conditions, including under future climate and land use settings. The catchment hydrology will be linked to a model of lahar motion, to allow the assessment of lahar inundation and the physical impacts in urban areas further from the volcano. We will apply the dynamic model at high resolution to provide predictions of lahar motion on the building scale. New mathematical modelling on the impacts of lahars on structure will provide methodology for assessing the physical vulnerability of the build environment to lahars. This integrated approach will allow, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the lahar hazards across a range of scales, providing the basis of future quantification of lahar risk, and will support the design of early warning systems. The project will provide advances in capacity for lahar hazard assessment in the Philippines and in other tropical countries with active volcanoes, and in dynamic aspects of risk related to hydrometeorological hazards, climate change, urbanization and land use change. Case study locations have been chosen to provide a combination of changing exposure due to climate and land use changes, and in rural and peri-urban settings.
- NERC Reference:
- NE/S00274X/1
- Grant Stage:
- Completed
- Scheme:
- Directed - International
- Grant Status:
- Closed
- Programme:
- SE Asia Hazards
This grant award has a total value of £380,459
FDAB - Financial Details (Award breakdown by headings)
| Indirect - Indirect Costs | DA - Investigators | DA - Estate Costs | DI - Staff | DI - T&S | DA - Other Directly Allocated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £160,710 | £38,201 | £42,539 | £105,465 | £31,708 | £1,838 |
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