Science Area:

Marine
Terrestrial

ENRIs:

Environmental Risks and Hazards
Global Change

Science Topics:

Climate & Climate Change
Land - Ocean Interactions
Ocean - Atmosphere Interact.
Ocean Circulation

Science Classification details

Overall Classification:

Unknown

Abstract: Holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 degree C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degree has been agreed by the representatives of the 196 parties of United Nations as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. Sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of a warming climate for the more than 600 million people living in the low elevation coastal areas less than 10 meters above sea level. Sea level rise concerns both public and policymakers, because the impact, risk, adaptation policies and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on future sea level rise projections. Sea level rise impact is expected to increase for centuries to come and thus it is a matter of the greatest urgency to accurately project future sea level rise and its uncertainties. However, currently there are no sea level projections for specific warmings of 1.5 and 2 degree C. Our project will explore the pace and long-term consequences for sea level rise with restricted warming of 1.5 degree and 2 degree, providing global and regional sea level projections by 2200. Outputs from this project will contribute to the research assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the new Special Report scheduled to be produced in 2018. The main questions in proposed research are: 1. How will global sea level respond to the warming of 1.5 and 2 degree C? 2. What are the regional differences in sea level projections with these warmings? Proposed work will provide valuable information about global and coastal sea level rise with warming of 1.5 and 2 degree C. Our work will benefit research in coastal engineering, coastal planning (adaptation and mitigation), glaciology, and climatology. Sea level projections in coastal areas (including projections for 136 large coastal cities) are potentially of large societal and economic benefit; for example, planning decisions need to be made concerning coastal infrastructure, such as the Thames Barrier, that may last for decades and cost billions of pounds.